#194 A Review of Surprising USA Statistics

The USA birthrate has remained on the average of 4 million/year since 1939. The current birth rate is only 12 births per 1000 people or 0.09%. The population growth rate is 0.6% which suggests that the growth in the population is due to immigration, not birth. Legal immigrants now constitute >14% of the population.

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There are 44.7 million legitimate immigrants in the use or 13.7% of the government recorded population. A large share (40%?) come from impoverished South American countries and constitute a significant share of population in the lowest quintile of income.

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The US labor force participation rate has declined from 51% in 1980 to 35.5% in 2010. The rise from 1962 to 1980 reflects the entry of women into the workforce. The decline since 1980 reflects a decrease in the share of young people in the workforce as the immigrants are of a more mature age and as the distribution by age shifting to older people.

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As the US population increases the savings rate decreases. Increased amounts of government benefits reduces unemployment while low wage immigrants can find employment. 

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The rising optimism and an increasing trust in future by the top earning 1% is reflected in the rising disparity between the stock market and the forward cash earnings of corporations.

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The rise in imports as compared with diminishing exports shows that in terms of international trade some of the USA assets are losing value.

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Since 2001 there has been a large increase in the Federal deficit.

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The disparity in US income shows up as follows: The lowest 20% quintile of the population earns 3% of the total. The next quintile (20-40%) earns 9%.  Next quintile (40 - 60%) earns 14%. The top ranked 20% quintile of households receive 52% of income.

Income-based comparisons are inadequate. The difference in quintiles is much greater when the share of assets is ranked.

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Upper income households increased their share of income from 29% in 1979 to 48% in 2018 while the share of middle income households declined from 62% to 43%. Lower income households declined from 10% to 9%.

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While trend in the share of GDP of personal income declined slightly, the government social benefits compensate persons with grants of social benefits.

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The current administration made up budget deficits by means of a steep rise in treasury debts obligations.

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Investments in USA structures have risen from $220 billion in 1960 to $430 billion in 2020 and leveling off  since 1980. However, intellectual property products have increased during the same time from $25 billion to $1,000 billion and keep rising. Consequently the USA GDP assets are now dominated by intellectual property (soft assets). Hard assets (equipment) is now dependent on intellectual assets that are easily exported.

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Wealth countries (G7) are declining in the  importance of global trade. Emerging countries (mostly the rest of world)) the gainers in global trade.

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The huge decline in fertility rates from an average of 5 children/woman in 1965 to 2 children/woman largely reflects increased  progress in childcare to  rising survivability of born children.

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The world population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.9 billion in 2020. That is an addition of 5.4 billion people in 70 years, or a 216% gain. 

For the remainder of this century, or 80 years, the world population will level off at 11 billion. That is an addition of 3.1 billion people, or a 39% gain.

The huge increases in the global population during the past 70 years will never be matched again by increases in the next 80 years.

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As the population ages and the number of people in the workforce declines it will require increased welfare payments for an economy to support the aging population. That will require more taxes and immigration from low-wage countries. 

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Dalio/Toynbee view of history cycles. Accordingly the USA is now on a down part of the pattern of civilizations.

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Displays how civilizations drift in historical cycles.

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The fracture of the US society: A drift  to a more conservative (more nationalistic and more right wing - e.g. republican view).
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The wealth of the top 0.1% of the population is 20%, the wealth of the bottom 90% is 30%. 
That shows rising inequality! Similarly the difference in income is 47% for the top 10% of families. What  matters is the inequality in wealth, not income.
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