Tuesday, May 10, 2016

072. Forecasts of an Incipient Market Drop

Revenue/Share Year over Year % has crossed the 0% growth line. This is a strong indication of an incipient market recession

S&P 500 Return on Equity has dipped below its average. That signals an incipient recession

When the ratio  of S&P enterprise valuation exceeds the 2nd standard deviation (the highest Bollinger band) that indicates there is an excess above the Yr 2000 recession as well as a higher value than the Yr 2008 recession.


There are also externalities that are starting to drive the US economy in the direction of negative performance. One of these is the rising trade deficit, which will have long-range implications:

SOURCE: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/index.html

The steadily growing negative trade balance will place increasing pressure on the value of the dollar as an international currency/ 





SOURCES: http://doubleline.com/archive/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MAG-Economic-Update_-_1Q2016.pdf

SUMMARY: A stock market recession is pending soon,










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